Oil, energy and general global doom

[Stormy]

I noticed there isn't much discussion about this here. Feel free to stay out of it if you want.

I was wondering peoples views on the oil crash/energy crisis/burn to bust/whatever term has been locally coined. Are people worried? What do you think will happen? When do you think it will happen? Do you think it will happen? I'm especially interested in people who haven't even heard of the concept (I talked to a dude the other day who hadn't).

Personally I think that "crash" is the wrong term. I don't think there will be an "oh shit, it's here" moment. Oil will run out, that's just physics, but I think the majority of countries will make the transition to sustainable practices (energy, transport, agriculture etc) out of necessity. I hear Finland and Sweden are leading the charge pretty well, and ten years ago I would have assumed that Australia would be a sustainability headliner by now, but alas governmental changes and foreign investments have turned us off that course.

I think that the poor will suffer worst. Rising oil costs will cause rising transport and agriculture costs and rising food costs. This will likely lead to more crime and more homelessness but I don't think there will be rioting on the streets. At least not here. Australians, for the majority, are dumb bogans who feel over entitled and demand that someone cater for their every need. I'm sure they'll revolt against "the government" (although most of them won't realise exactly which part of it they are revolting against or exactly why).

But as for the sudden and total collapse of government and society, I'm not going to bank on it. The rich have enough money to stave off the slide for a long time, and by their virtue alone the economy will shift to sustainable practices. At some point they'll realise that they should be getting solar panels and that the companies they own should have electric cars and so on. Energy will be too expensive otherwise, and will affect their profit margins. In this sense, greed would almost be our saving grace. Their greed would force them to "go green" and that will save the rest of us in the long run.

In Australia (and especially in far north queensland) we have a good level of general awareness about sustainability and harm to the ecosystem that supports us. People who scoffed at gardening five years ago now have sizable veggie patches and chickens (not many, but enough for a glimmer of hope). Australians in the past have had to live from the land more recently than other developed countries. We have also always had a big hippie community and they have made us aware of ecological damage earlier than other countries. At the moment there aren't any great sustainable energy subsidies being offered so solar panels are mostly bought straight off your own back. They may pay themselves off in ten years but no one wants to pony up the dough.

There are a few community lots in Cairns (my city) but not enough to make any real social statement. Apparently they are in high demand though so they may have some support after all. Aussies are pretty susceptible to what the TV tells them to think unfortunately, which has resulted in a stupidly defensive response to the carbon tax. As is the norm they fail to see the bigger picture or research a subject before deciding whether or not the ad they saw on the TV is giving them the unbiased truth. But the fact that the gov is at least going through the motions is better than if they shunned the subject entirely.

I think the "oil crash" is going to rather be an "oil transition" as the economies move to sustainable energy. And as with any systemic change, there will be a squeeze period. People will get desperate and people will most likely die in Australia as a result of not being able to afford living, but between the enterprising spirit and the compassion of the populace here I think we'll be alright as long as no one decides they want our land. (I'm looking at you, China).

As for me, I'm working my ring out to make as much money as I can to buy off my house so I can sell it and get a nice big block of land in the country and start a little farm community on it. You're all welcome to wwoof anytime.

What about you? What is the political and social climate like in your country? Many countries are facing tumultuous government changes and seem to have missed the peak oil concept entirely. What are you going to do as prices go up and oil runs low? Are you going to do anything? What is the community like? Would people be able to grow all their own food and use money for other things instead?

No matter what, I am sure glad that I picked this century to be alive. We are going into very very interesting times and at the other end we'll be able to look back on a major historical era.

[Jordash]

Oil prices are on the way up, while electric cars and solar panels are becoming cheaper and more efficient, when they cross over we'll start to see a lot of change, but until then I think a lot of people are just acting with their wallets, I mean 9 times out of 10, who wouldn't?.

In Perth, the government has released a plan to develop areas of the suburbs into 'Hubs', basically mini cities with entertainment and commercial areas where you couldn't expect them, well at least where you couldn't expect them in Perth anyhow. The goal of this is to increase the self sufficient employment of the suburbs, ie, people work a lot close to where they live, reducing the need for cars. I imagine a lot of high density areas will open up around the city when petrol becomes expensive too, a lot of people live in the suburbs because the long commute times aren't a concern when you can have your own house in a quite area with clean air etc, that will change when it costs as much money as you make getting to the city.

But as you said, one of the biggest issues will be food transport, I've only really though about individuals, not the infrastructure behind it.

Besides, we're meant to be getting fusion power in 2030, if that pans out we'll be in the clear.

[Stormy]

Wow I hadn't heard of that plan from Perth. What a fantastic thing that a whole city is putting out ideas like that. I really hope that they at least set up one such area as a trial.

Venezuela has already been through their oil recession. I think it had something to do with a trade embargo, or strikes or something, but the people deserted the cities en masse. the ones left there grew food everywhere. They converted parks to massive community food lots and managed to pull through. I would hope that the rest of the world would react similarly. By decompressing their population they managed to feed the nation without the heavy reliance on oil based transport.

At one point I was planning for the "inevitability" of the banks closing and money becoming meaningless, but I recently realised that the banks will stay alive no matter what. Interest rates may soar and local informal economies may become more effective but the bank will always want their money. That's why I am hoping to pay off my block of land completely, or at least only have a tiny loan.

I also think the biggest problem is food shortages and costs, but thankfully that is also the easiest to solve, provided councils and governmental bodies accept the change and allow people to grow more food. In some neighbourhoods (mostly the new estates for people pretending to be rich) food growing is not allowed. Riddle me that.

[Jordash]

It's only been finalised in the last few months, I wouldn't know about it if I weren't writing an essay on it
They've been drafting plans for a few years, it's actually hilarious how the 'rich' councils are refusing to change anything but the newer suburbs have all these plans already in place, oh the conservative mind.

Finally a legitimate reason for me to stockpile canned food!

[WhiteDevil]

My physics teacher used to tell us in highschool that humans have already transitioned rather effortlessly to a new energy source for about 3 times already, why would the next one should be so difficult?

First we used wood for heating and steam engines, then it was coal for more power and then oil and nuclear power etc. All we need is the technology and it's already right around the corner. Oil will run out just like anything else eventually but who says it's over when we just happen to run most of our current tehnology with oil? We're just gonna transition to the next.

The current generation might not be ready to make the change for more economic way of living but we're getting there eventually.

[Major Banter]

We'll bust, then just carry on with something else.

It's human nature to adapt.

[marnamai]

Since energy can't be created, but only converted from one to another type of energy, we 'll run out of fossil fuel in 10-20 years from now. One thing I really despise tho is that the current mayor oil companies buy their way into the new energy market and hold back technological progress just to make a little extra money before they run out of oil or it becomes too expensive to drill for oil.

I do wonder what will happen with materials made from oil, ex: plastic. Corn plastic maybe?

Or non renewable materials like iron ore? Sure they can be recycled, but eventually the quality is degraded so badly that it's unsafe to use in high demanding material production, like aircrafts.

[zombie@computer]

Since energy can't be created, but only converted from one to another type of energy, we 'll run out of fossil fuel in 10-20 years from now. One thing I really despise tho is that the current mayor oil companies buy their way into the new energy market and hold back technological progress just to make a little extra money before they run out of oil or it becomes too expensive to drill for oil.

I do wonder what will happen with materials made from oil, ex: plastic. Corn plastic maybe?

Or non renewable materials like iron ore? Sure they can be recycled, but eventually the quality is degraded so badly that it's unsafe to use in high demanding material production, like aircrafts.

theres hardly any iron in airplanes, too weak, too heavy. Its all polymers and aluminuminiumiumon. Oh, and of course depleted uranium cuz thats the best material to make weights of, you see? Anyway, most of earth is iron, so its mathematically impossible to deplete it all.

I don't believe we will run out of oil in 10-20 years. Thats almost impossible. However, production will likely go down while demand (esp from Africa, India and China) will go up. Theres lots of oil in sand and 'greenpeace-areas' we currently do not WANT to dig into, but if things go bad, those supplies will last us for some time as well. It's a relative shortage, hence price increase, but running out is a word that should be reserved for fanatic end-of-the-world preachers. If all else fails theres still a FUCKload of coal, but i doubt anyone is willing to use it before oil prices reach astronomical levels.

We will need to transition at some point, but to where? Wind power is nice, but it has reached it's ultimate efficiency and just increased usage of them will not help us one bit. Tidal, geothermal... all nice, but can only be used locally or in too small quantities to actually matter.
Solar is probably the way to go. Some day. I do not believe we will be able to reach anywhere near oil-independence with just solar, but who knows what the future will hold?
If i had to bet, I'd bet on fusion, but development goes slow. We are nearly there, yes, but we were nearly there in the seventies as well. I don't see fusion giving me the juice in my lifetime, and i plan to live for another 50-60 years (maybe even longer).
Fission reactors work already, and are relatively safe. Sure, we all get scared like little school girls when a power plant older than Chernobyl goes awry after an earthquake that would level most western countries, thats part of the price we need to pay. Power plants are dangerous, because theres a one in a million chance that millions will die when one explodes, an unacceptable risk, we all think. And yet most Dutch live in an area which has a larger chance of turning into New New Orleans, but those are acceptable risks. I guess because we see the dikes and all get swimming lessons and shiz. And yet, radiation, you can't contain it with dikes. We fear what we don't see, smell or taste. We fear what we don't know.
Personally, i feel theres a future for fission, at least as a temporary energy source until we get fusion (I'm told its relatively easy to convert fission plants to fusion once the time is there, so thats another plus). I'm also reading promising items on the internet about thorium breeding reactors, which are claimed to be the new, improved nuclear reactors (hardly any radiation, no uranium or plutionium needed (except for starting up), thorium is relatively abundant AND the reactors are relatively cheap. They have so many advantages, one would think they cant exist. (which in all honesty is my current view on the matter :p )

oh, and lastly:

My physics teacher used to tell us in highschool that humans have already transitioned rather effortlessly to a new energy source for about 3 times already, why would the next one should be so difficult?

Those were transitions because of efficiency (the next is more efficient/easy than the previous), now we need to transition because we NEED to. Our increase usage has made us increasingly dependant, we CANNOT fail. Its a race against the clock.

[marnamai]

I meant iron as an example of the group of materials that are non renewable. (what is the group name for iron, steel, ect? metal I assume?)

Also I don't belief we will run out of oil, but soon it will be too expensive to drill it up and too costly for consumers, thus making it a less interesting financial option.

Hence why Total and GDFsuez are main shareholders for a lot of large solar cell manufacturing plants. Including the place I currently work at.

[Gary]

Fission reactors work already, and are relatively safe. Sure, we all get scared like little school girls when a power plant older than Chernobyl goes awry after an earthquake that would level most western countries, thats part of the price we need to pay. Power plants are dangerous, because theres a one in a million chance that millions will die when one explodes, an unacceptable risk, we all think.

If a reactor breached or even melted down, I doubt it would kill millions... maybe if someone dropped a nuclear bomb on it.

I hate that so many people think that nuclear plants will blow up and cause a nuclear explosion destroying half the planet when ever it feels like. Or those who use Chernobyl as an example of why not to use nuclear power. All Chernobyl tells us is not to let Russians build and maintain any of our plants.


A lot of people also seem to bash anything that does or has any potential to harm people, animals, or the damn trees. So basically we need a super-fuel that is free, 100% safe and will power the world, might as well have it make us coffee while we are at it.

[zombie@computer]

Fission reactors work already, and are relatively safe. Sure, we all get scared like little school girls when a power plant older than Chernobyl goes awry after an earthquake that would level most western countries, thats part of the price we need to pay. Power plants are dangerous, because theres a one in a million chance that millions will die when one explodes, an unacceptable risk, we all think.

If a reactor breached or even melted down, I doubt it would kill millions... maybe if someone dropped a nuclear bomb on it.

I hate that so many people think that nuclear plants will blow up and cause a nuclear explosion destroying half the planet when ever it feels like. Or those who use Chernobyl as an example of why not to use nuclear power. All Chernobyl tells us is not to let Russians build and maintain any of our plants.


A lot of people also seem to bash anything that does or has any potential to harm people, animals, or the damn trees. So basically we need a super-fuel that is free, 100% safe and will power the world, might as well have it make us coffee while we are at it.

I agree, millions was an exaggeration to make my point. In fact, all technology comes at a risk. Even the invention of fire must've been frowned upon by some greenpeace forefathers ('think of all the trees and animals you could burn, omg').

[kkirspel]

Yeah the world won't literally be sucked dry of oil, it's just not cost effective. We'll still "run out of oil" for all intents and purposes though.
That's a really good point you make though stormy, about how corporate greed will actually save us - I never thought of it that way. Right now all I see is them holding us back from other technologies so they can make another dollar.

Personally, I've really promoted solar energy when the topic comes up. I've been budgeting for awhile in hopes of solar paneling my (future) home as well as purchasing an electric car, when the technology and price make a baby that is.

[srredfire]

I'm Penn and this is my partner Teller, and we're here to tell you that oil, energy, and global doom, is BULLSHIT.

[Jangalomph]

Solar is the way to go imo. Also there are a few nuclear power plants roughly.. within 300 miles away from me? Powers alot of towns/cities from what i know. Quite efficient.. But as we've stated. Corporate greed WILL save us. Atleast theres one plus side to the greed.

[Stormy]

Running out of oil insofar as sucking the planet dry won't happen, but running out of affordable oil is going to happen Iin the next 10 years or so and the squeeze period between when oil is abundant and when people no longer require oil is the hard bit. Saying that we'll never run out of iron is also a bit silly, we'll eventually use the high grade deposits we're using now and the price of production refining and manufacture will soar because of the lack of cheap energy se it will be the same deal of there's still plenty there, it just won't be available for you or I. And sure earth is pretty much made of iron but I don't see us mining mantle anytime soon.

ITransitioning to new energy sources has always been because the new energy source is abundant, cheap, smaller and easier to use. This transition is to less efficient, less reliable (allegedly) energy. I'll agree, there is a fuckton of coal left, but powering the worlds food production and transport on coal is unlikely at best and would still reduce efficiency and raise costs. While expensive oil will mean less cool things like microwaves and Ipads being produced as well as the degradation of transport systems.

Geothermal energy is extremely promising. There are designs for closed loop geothermal energy plants that would produce amazingly efficient energy. And I agree that nuclear energy is fantastic, nope people die on the road each year than would ever be at risk from a well planned and situated nuclear power plant.

It's nothing to be raving fanatically in the street about but it's worth preparing for.