Global Warming

[ishbog]

Lets talk about global warming:

---We know astonishingly little about every aspect of the environment, from its past history, to its present state, to how to conserve and protect it. In every debate, all sides overstate the extent of existing knowledge and its degree of certainty.

--- Atmospheric carbon dioxide is increasing, and human activity is the probable cause.

--- We are also in the midst of a natural warming trend that began about 1850, as we emerged from a four-hundred-year old cold spell known as the "Little Ice Age."

--- Nobody knows how much of the present warming trend might be a natural phenomenon.

--- Nobody knows how much of the present warming trend might be man-made.

--- Nobody knows how much warming will occur in the next century. The computer models vary by 400 percent, de facto proof that nobody knows. But if I had to guess --- the only thing anyone is doing, really --- I would guess the increase will be 0.812437 degrees C. There is no evidence that my guess about the state of the world one hundred years from now is any better or worse than anyone else's. (We can't "assess" the future, nor can we "predict" it. These are euphemisms. We can only guess. And informed guess is just a guess.)

--- I suspect that part of the observed surface warming will ultimately be attributable to human activity. I suspect that the principal human effect will come from land use, and that the atmospheric component will be minor.

--- Before making expensive policy decisions on the basis of climate models, I think it is reasonable to require that those models predict future temperatures accurately for a period of ten years. Twenty would be better.

--- I think for anyone to believe in impending resource scarcity, after two hundred years of such false alarms, is kind of weird. I don't know whether such a belief today is best ascribed to ignorance of history, sclerotic dogmatism, unhealthy love of Malthus, or simple pigheadedness, but it is evidently a hardly perennial in human calculation.

--- There are many reasons to shift away from fossil fuels, and we will do so in the next century without legislation, financial incentives, carbon-conservation programs, or the interminable yammering of fearmongers. So far as I know, nobody had to ban horse transportation in the early twentieth century.

--- I suspect the people of 2100 will be much richer than we are, consume more energy, have a smaller global population, and enjoy more wilderness than we have today. I don't think we have to worry about them.

--- The current near-hysterical preoccupation with safety is at best a waste of resources and a crimp on the human spirit, and at worst an invitation to totalitarianism. Public education is desperately needed.

--- I conclude that most environmental "principles" (such as sustainable development or the precautionary principle) have the effect of preserving the economic advantages of the West and thus constitute modern imperialism toward the developing world. It is a nice way of saying, "We got ours and we don't want you to get yours, because you'll cause too much pollution."

--- I believe people are will intentioned. But I have great respect for the corrosive influence of bias, systematic distortions of thought, the power of rationalization, the guises of self-interest, and the inevitability of unintended consequences.

--- I have more respect for people who change their views after acquiring new information than for those who cling to views they held thirty years ago. The world changes, Ideologues and zealots don't.

--- In the thirty-five-odd years since the environmental movement came into existence, science has undergone a major revolution. This revolution has brought new understanding of nonlinear dynamics, complex systems, chaos theory, catastrophe theory. It has transformed the way we think about evolution and ecology. Yet these no-longer-new ideas have hardly penetrated the thinking of environmental activists, which seems oddly fixed in the concepts and rhetoric of the 1970's.

--- We haven't the foggiest notion how to preserve what we term "wilderness," and we had better study it in the field and learn how to do so. I see no evidence that we are conducting such research in a humble, rational and systematic way. I therefore hold little hope for wilderness management in the twenty-first century. I blame environmental organizations every bit as much as developers and strip miners. There is no difference in outcomes between greed and incompetence.

--- We need a new environmental movement, with new goals and new organizations. We need more people working in the field, in the actual environment, and fewer people behind computer screens. We need more scientists and many fewer lawyers.

--- We cannot hope to manage a complex system such as the environment through litigation. We can only change its state temporarily --- usually by preventing something --- with eventual results that we cannot predict and ultimately cannot control.

[Spas12]

we are the luckiest generation to be living ever in human history. we are lucky because we will witness many answers to global warming. Our generation will see the cause and affect of global warming, and so will our descendents.

We are at the height of technology, our way of life is easier and more advancded then it ever used to be.

Global warming will indeed overwhelm this Earth and all living lifemay cease to exist. it will take lots of more years but i think there would be a catastrophic disaster that will take many lives before global wraming goes full effect on this world.

Of course, noone looks toward the future. If scientists cannot find a way to clean up this world will be even more doomed (we are doomed already)

time will tell all.

[zombie@computer]

theres nothing to do but wait till we can succesfully utilize nuclear fusion. Once done, most of our problems will vanish into thin air. Untill then, i see little reason not to continue with what we are doing now, as it wont take that long (i plan to see it happen during my lifetime )

[Death33284]

we are the luckiest generation to be living ever in human history. we are lucky because we will witness many answers to global warming. Our generation will see the cause and affect of global warming, and so will our descendents.

We are at the height of technology, our way of life is easier and more advancded then it ever used to be.

You can really say that about any time period, as every person in a time period views themselves as the height of technology because it is constantly increasing.

[ishbog]

Knowledge increases exponentially. For those not learned in the ways of algebra, that means it increases faster and faster.

Thus, the next generation is luckier. And the next after that is even more. And so on.

And if this is true, that knowledge is increasing, then why worry about the people a thousand years from now, who will have ultimately solved the farse that is global warming?

Even if the world is warming up, the amount is so small that it's not worth worrying about. It won't affect my life, nor the lives of the next few generations. And by then, it wont even matter. As newer, better technologies replace buring of fossil fuel and other pollution-producing fuels. And the change won't need environmental organizations or lawsuits or education.

[Zyggy]

I think for anyone to believe in impending resource scarcity, after two hundred years of such false alarms, is kind of weird. I don't know whether such a belief today is best ascribed to ignorance of history, sclerotic dogmatism, unhealthy love of Malthus, or simple pigheadedness, but it is evidently a hardly perennial in human calculation.

But they are going to run out sometime. The consumption of fossil fuels is increasing exponetially (;)) rememeber that china and other eastern countries are just starting to become "developed".

There are many reasons to shift away from fossil fuels, and we will do so in the next century without legislation, financial incentives, carbon-conservation programs, or the interminable yammering of fearmongers. So far as I know, nobody had to ban horse transportation in the early twentieth century.

Horses don't have exhaust pipes. Not metal ones anyway

I conclude that most environmental "principles" (such as sustainable development or the precautionary principle) have the effect of preserving the economic advantages of the West and thus constitute modern imperialism toward the developing world. It is a nice way of saying, "We got ours and we don't want you to get yours, because you'll cause too much pollution."

pretty cynical view but i see where you're coming from. However it is worth using "developed" countries as a model, to cut down on "emissions".

I believe people are will
intentioned. But I have great respect for the corrosive influence of bias, systematic distortions of thought, the power of rationalization, the guises of self-interest, and the inevitability of unintended consequences.

Mind if i quote you on that?

[quote=
"ishbog"]We need a new environmental movement, with new goals and new organizations. We need more people working in the field, in the actual environment, and fewer people behind computer screens. We need more scientists and many fewer lawyers. [/quote]

Form one man, call it "ishbog's eco strike team"

Interesting stuff i enjoyed reading it.

[ferret]

Even if the world is warming up, the amount is so small that it's not worth worrying about. It won't affect my life, nor the lives of the next few generations. And by then, it wont even matter. As newer, better technologies replace buring of fossil fuel and other pollution-producing fuels. And the change won't need environmental organizations or lawsuits or education.

I wouldn't be so optimistic -- you're forgetting about the environmental tipping points. Once a large number of these critical sytems are out of balance (which I think is very close), there is no going back. Scientists have cited many of the processes and systems that affect temperature and weather all over the planet as being irreversible once changed. The further they are affected, the more they will get out of balance; like a vicious downward spiral.

One of these tipping points is the CO2 concentrations in the oceans. As you may know, all the oceans have large amounts of carbon dioxide dissolved in them -- much like Co2 in your soda. If you know from the gas laws and from experience with soda, the CO2 gas is less soluble in warmer liquid, so the gas escapes. Just like what happens to your soda, CO2 escapes from the oceans in large quantities. With the increase in ocean temperatures, more (a lot more) of the gas is released into the atmosphere -- and since CO2 is a greenhouse gas, it further increases greenhouse warming which in turn causes ocean temperatures to rise even more and worsening the cycle. Another problem with gases occurs in the frozen tundras of Russia. Under the deep permafrost, there are vast holds of methane gas that has been trapped from geologic events. With the warmer temperatures, the permafrost is melting and actually lets out these pockets of methane into the air...and it does so explosively. And since methane is another greenhouse gas, you can see how it worsens the whole issue.

Another major problem are the ice sheets covering the arctic and Greenland. On normal conditions, most of the heat from the sun bounces off the white snow and ice, since white has nearly 100% reflectivity -- so the ice is unaffected. But from the increase in temperatures, open ocean and ground are being exposed under thin areas of the ice, and ground and water have only around 20% reflectivity. The problem continues to grow at these 'weak areas'and expands the holes in the ice sheet -- furthering the whole problem.

And there are roughly 9 more of these tipping points in places all over the world...

So by the time we screw everything up (which won't be long), it'll be far to late to do anything. There's no means of technology that can put ice back in thousands of square miles or raise a whole ocean's temperature in the hopes that it will right itself. There will be nothing we can do...so we have to do what we can now.

[Generalvivi]

to adhd to read all this. In short... . one day were all ganna burn todeath

[Spas12]

to adhd to read all this. In short... . one day were all ganna burn todeath

well be poisoned not burned.

[dragonfliet]

Will read this later when I have time (and then I can make an informed reply), but as it's mildly related, anyone see the preview for Who Killed the Electric Car? documentary? Looks really great.

~Jason

[Voltdenatsu]

All the economical values being discussed among various science teams doesn't help. The only real solutions lie in:
A: Finding a planet and building light speed to send 2 human beings, one of a female gender, the other a male gender to a planet suitable for human life.
B: Building indestructable ecodome units that houses humans, animals, agriculture, and marine life.
C: Find animals to eat in caves, seal them off, and continue human life some how in caves.
If you have seen "The Day After Tomorrow", the impact of that humungous storm system is a bit dramatic - those effects won't actually or completely happen - though they are pretty much what to expect in the case of global warming, not to mention the ocean conveyor, which if it is halted or whatnot, then weather will screw us over and make us go down to Antarctica. In which case, the south might be the spot to live in because conditions may be too difficult to live in one way or another any where else.

[YokaI]

We don't know too much about what is going on, however, we also don't know too much about why this is happening. Maybe this is happening recently because of very little trees there are compared to before. And maybe Humans can learn how to adapt to the weather changes, like many other animals learn how to adapt. Or, maybe this is just a cycle that the earth goes through every million years or so.

Basicaly, we need to try to reduce G.H. gasses and if that doesnt work, we need to probably plant more trees and such to help rebuild the ozone layer. Try to help make the earth a better place for our generation and the next and hope that it keeps going on and on.

[Voltdenatsu]

We don't know too much about what is going on, however, we also don't know too much about why this is happening. Maybe this is happening recently because of very little trees there are compared to before. And maybe Humans can learn how to adapt to the weather changes, like many other animals learn how to adapt. Or, maybe this is just a cycle that the earth goes through every million years or so.

Basicaly, we need to try to reduce G.H. gasses and if that doesnt work, we need to probably plant more trees and such to help rebuild the ozone layer. Try to help make the earth a better place for our generation and the next and hope that it keeps going on and on.

In Maine, we have trees.
If someone needs more oxygen, you know where to go.

[zombie@computer]

fact is that we dont know little to nothing about what exactly is the cause, how its working, what mechanisms nature has left to counter this, and what will happen. I for one, dont believe greenpeace doom scenarios, because they are from the same line as acid rain and myths like that (which exist but hardly change our lives). That is also why i dont give a damn, and i wont even try to hold in my farts because the methane it produces could damage the ecosystem. Nature probably got a few tricks up its sleeve, and if it hasnt we are surely going to die when earth heats up another 10 degrees. I dont think itll come to that untill the next millenium, and i also dont think we are responsible when it happens.

[MercX]

two words: Unforseen Consequences