If possible I'd combine the shaders and only draw either of them, like adding film grain to the drunk shader and then only drawing the latter (you can copy and paste nodes between files, so this should be easy to do

).
Though generally you could just 'guess' or test how expensive a shader is and then possibly make a cheaper version for older pcs. The film grain shader should be rather cheap for example, but the drunk shader is kinda expensive (you could make a cheap version without the blur loop). It does a lot of lookups per pixel and has expensive arithmetics - though I'm sure there's still room to optimise it anyway. All of the example files I released alongside with the editor were just a result from messing around actually, I didn't really bother to optimise them or anything, and some should be drawn onto a downsampled RT too.
Also make sure that the graphicscard can handle the shader model you compiled, although I guess sm 3.0 shouldn't be much of an issue these days anyway.